In a nutshell: "Impossible" for me to invest at this absurdly high company valuation.
Interesting development that Seedrs offers further secondary placements (so-called "secondaries"). Here shares are resold by an existing investor. Depending on the conditions originally set by the startup for a resale of the shares, the secondary offering can also take place without the involvement of the company.
Notice: This campaign will be held in the "Private Deal Room" of Seedrs offered. "High Net Worth" and "Sophisticated" Investors have access. This setting can be changed in the profile settings be updated if the necessary criteria for classification are met.
Here has Seedrs So found an investor who shares in Impossible Foods want to sell. The startup produces vegan meat substitutes. Competitors are the better known Beyond Meat or all plantswho recently ran a crowd investing campaign on Seedrs.
To anticipate my investment decision: I would never invest at this valuation and in my opinion the risks of falling prices clearly outweigh the possible chances of an increase in value. The rating called is staggeringly high and I personally will not invest in this campaign.
Impossible Foods last round of funding took place in August 2020 at a valuation of £3.1bn or $4.2bn. Seedrs has already had to renegotiate the share price down with the seller and has managed to get around a 16% discount on this, so that the surcharge on the last valuation now corresponds to approx. 117%. This results in a valuation of Impossible Foods (IF) of approximately £6.7bn or $9.1bn for this secondary campaign.
In November 2021, IF announced one another round of financing over $500MM. Nothing was known about the company valuation. According to previous rumors of Bloomberg from October 2021 the valuation could have been approx. $7 billion. The concealment of the valuation leads me to conclude that the final negotiated valuation could have been less than $7 billion. Because if the rating was higher, IF would probably announce this in a media-effective way. This probably results in a Surcharge of well over 30% compared to the latest funding round (October 2021 article).
The stock chart of listed competitor Beyond Meat (BM) is also very interesting: The stock price has fallen by more than 60% (!) since its high point in early 2021. Beyond Meat expects 2021 sales of $513MM with relatively modest year-on-year growth of +26%. As of mid-December 2021, Beyond Meat's market cap is c.$4.4B, which is 8.5x 2021 annual sales. Various online sources estimate IF's sales at around $230MM for 2021, which is around half that of BM. At half sales, IF should also have a valuation of around 50% that of BM, so around $2.2B -- Or slightly higher, as IF's growth rate could be greater than BM's. So, generously, IF could be worth around $2.5 to $3.5 billion. However, the called rating is about 3-4 times as high. This offers a heavy discount risk. Also, we anticipate a sales multiple of 11x for IF ($230MM sales at $2.5B valuation). In the long term, however, there will also be a more realistic sales multiple of 1-3x sales in the food sector. Only a few high-growth companies even achieve a 3x sales multiple in the food sector.
The much smaller startup Allplants has called a valuation of £76MM in its last round of funding and aims to achieve future sales of £20MM a year by the end of 2021, so the sales multiple is more in the range of 3-5x despite higher growth and not like at IF at more than 10x (although IF should also grow much slower).
Conclusion: All comparisons of IF with similar companies show a clear overvaluation of the Seedrs round of Impossible Foods. In my view, the risks massively outweigh the opportunities.
Addendum 12/21/2021
I did not take a detailed look at the overall market for vegan nutrition and the growth in this segment. Am I missing something here? Will this segment of the market grow so much that it makes sense to ignore valuation and grab a piece of the pie? Because in 5-10 years it can be assumed that Impossible Foods will also generate 50 times as much sales as it does today and the share purchase is therefore a rare opportunity to position yourself well in the long term? Write me your opinion in the comments!
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Hi Philip, I have also spend 30m minutes looking at Impossible Foods and decided it's a clear no because of the price. Separately, I've put a sizeable ticked on all plants in its November round.
I am no expert in nutrition trends, but I can only add that from a resource utilization perspective, it's more efficient for the environment to eat vegan food than meat based products. At the time the prices will recognize it, it may be that genuine meat will be so expensive that most people will switch in a significant part to vegan food. But I'm not betting when or whether that will happen.
PS: it seems a block of text at the end of your post is repeating 5 times at the end of your post. You may want to review it.
Florine, many thanks for your message! The trend towards a vegetarian diet is what we're betting on with an investment in Allplants. I have invested a relevant amount in this one, too! For the tech error and repetition, I don't see it at my end. Will follow up with you and maybe we can fix it together. If other users have the same problem, feel free to let me know!